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June 27, 2018
The 30-day moving average (MA) is proving a tough nut to crack for EUR bulls despite rising odds of a full-blown trade war between the US and the rest of the world.
The EUR/USD's three-day winning streak came to a halt yesterday as the common currency ran into offers around the 30-day MA and fell to 1.1635. At press time, the currency pair is trading at 1.1660 and the 30-day MA is located at 1.1689.
While it is too early to say the corrective rally from the recent low of 1.1508 has ended, EUR bulls are forewarned against being too ambitious by gold's rapid decline.
The yellow metal, also a hard currency with limited supply, is taking a bearing against the greenback despite trade war fears and risk aversion. Also, gold cannot be printed out of thin air (QE) like other paper currencies.
Still, the metal is on the defensive against the USD, which could be an indication of a limited upside in the EUR/USD and other paper currencies.
Focus on durable goods report
The USD may find fresh bids if the US durable goods orders (due at 12.30 GMT) betters market expectations. US goods trade balance and pending home sales could also influence the USD demand.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
Resistance: 1.1689 (30-day MA), 1.1823 (50-day MA), 1.1852 (double bottom neckline).
Support: 1.1644 (session low), 1.1622 (10-day MA), 1.16 (psychological level).
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